What to make of these trends? Do they justify the “recession mania” that is taking shape?
The Fed clings to the only thing that is not plunging!
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Historinhas 
“The Fed clings to the only thing that is not plunging”… yet. Stay tuned for more hair raising adventures of As the Phillips Curve Turns.
I don’t see how we can have that big of a bite taken out of the markets in general without it impacting employment. The almost $1T of liquidity sucked out by the reverse repo during the last week of year means it’s all starting at the top, with an interesting note that declining values of settlements since then have done little to stop the selling. Just perhaps it is too late to put that tight money genie back into the bottle post indiscriminate quadrupling of the value of the reverse repo.
Why do I bet for a recession? because the financial instability in the world reacting on a febled US economy. There are some parallelism with 2011-12, but this time there will not be a Draghi’s reshuffle effect nor a China recovery, as in August. I think “This time is different”.
… And also because I think the fed will have not the confidence to revert the situation. The last rise of FFR has been a big mistake. But I can be wrong. I hope.
I was startled by the IP index when I checked it last week. However, the manufacturing index is still growing slowly, it’s the drop off in mining and oil production that’s pulling down the main IP index. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IPMAN
Economic growth is definitely slowing, I don’t know why they’d be tightening policy…oh wait, yes I do, they have a broken framework.
Yes, we have to fix the suuply side. Oh, the International Energy Agency just reported that they expect a 1.5 million barrels per day surplus through the next couple years in production. They say the world will “drown” in oversupply of oil.