That´s what you get when you do GDP component analysis. Sounds smart but is utterly useless:
Macroeconomics should be about aggregates, not components of spending. Yes, changes occurring in the various components of GDP can impact interest rates, and thus velocity. And if monetary policy is inept (i.e. doesn’t offset changes in velocity) that can impact nominal spending, but it certainly isn’t the most illuminating way of looking at the issue. It’s like trying to explain changes in the overall price level by modelling changes in the nominal price of each good—theoretically possible, but a waste of time.
Dean Baker says:
The biggest risk is that a set of bad events elsewhere in the world could cause the trade deficit to deteriorate further.
According to Brookings:
Hutchins’ Fiscal Impact Measure shows sluggish government spending contributed to weak fourth quarter GDP growth.
Bernanke himself once said:
As emphasized by Friedman (in his eleventh proposition) and by Allan Meltzer, nominal interest rates are not good indicators of the stance of policy, as a high nominal interest rate can indicate either monetary tightness or ease, depending on the state of inflation expectations. Indeed, confusing low nominal interest rates with monetary ease was the source of major problems in the 1930s, and it has perhaps been a problem in Japan in recent years as well. The real short-term interest rate, another candidate measure of policy stance, is also imperfect, because it mixes monetary and real influences, such as the rate of productivity growth…
The absence of a clear and straightforward measure of monetary ease or tightness is a major problem in practice. How can we know, for example, whether policy is “neutral” or excessively “activist”?
Ultimately, it appears, one can check to see if an economy has a stable monetary background only by looking at macroeconomic indicators such as nominal GDP growth and inflation…”
If you follow Bernanke´s lead, this is what you see
Clearly not what you could call a “stable monetary background”.
Historinhas 