Poland never really understood why it didn´t crash in 2008

It took three years, but in late 2011 Poland finally botched up and went the way of the majority of countries, letting NGDP fall way below trend. They didn´t (correctly) react to the 2007-08 oil price rise, like the US, UK, EZ, etc. and fared well, but didn´t resist when oil prices picked up again in 2010-11, when, among the initial group, only the ECB was dumb enough to react.

Poland Botch_1

Poland Botch_2png

Ravi Varghese tweeted: “I guess every central bank has at least one cringe-worthy member. Polish edition with Jan Winiecki”

Annual price growth dropped below zero in July, starting Poland’s longest stretch of deflation since the statistics office started publishing monthly price data in the 1980s. Consumer prices dropped 1.3 percent in January from a year earlier, deepening their 1 percent decline in December.

Inflation has undershot the central bank’s 2.5 percent target for 26 months and has been below the lower bound of its 1.5 percent-3.5 percent tolerance range for two years.

Winiecki said “it’s quite possible” that sustained deflation or below-target inflation may prompt the next Monetary Policy Council, which takes office in early 2016, to consider “whether it makes sense” to keep targeting price growth at 2.5 percent.

It’s probably impossible to achieve this CPI target, and I don’t see anything changing this for another decade or so,” Winiecki said.

As the Oscar-winning editorial punch line from the Guardian said:

If that is the analysis, though, then it really is time to retire the target, and move to another that is in line with the real objectives. For when chancellors cheer at their own targets being missed, then, instead of strategic economic direction, we are left with aiming in the dark.

3 thoughts on “Poland never really understood why it didn´t crash in 2008

  1. Let me get this straight: In the space of eight years, we have gone from right-wingers insisting that hyperinflation is imminent and central banks will cause an inflationary inferno at any moment, to right-wing central bankers saying it is “impossible” for a central bank to hit a 2.5% inflation target?

    A central bank cannot even gin up even a 2.5% rate of inflation?

    What happened in the Western world from 1960 through 2007?

  2. Pingback: Crimes against the economy and, by extension, against its citizens – NGDP Advisers

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