How to be politically correct (and, therefore, bland)

From two heavyweights: M. Feldstein and R. Rubin:

In the short run, markets tend to be psychological and in the longer run tend to reflect fundamentals. Whether and how much markets are mispriced relative to fundamentals is always uncertain. But when markets have moved across the board as much as they now have, that should be a warning of the possibility of excesses.

Our conclusion is not that the Fed should respond to those risks by raising interest rates now. Weak labor markets are and should be a deep concern and a pressing issue. But the Fed should also take into consideration the possibility of excesses brought on by low interest rates that could create financial crises. In making interest-rate decisions, the Fed should have a realistic view of the broad range of the existing systemic risks and of the limits of the government’s currently extant macroprudential tools.

The stress in these interest-rate decisions is heightened by the political system’s failure to act on our nation’s broader policy challenges, increasing the pressure on monetary policy, despite the limits on what it can do and the risks its expanded use can pose.

Really?

2 thoughts on “How to be politically correct (and, therefore, bland)

  1. I’d like to see them end this piece by listing the trades they’ve made to benefit from this view. Should be some mix of calls and puts that make one rich if the EMH is wrong and the ABCT is true. They’re all Austrians now…

    • Jason, set up a prototype portfolio of calls and puts that reflect their “ABCT” view and report on how it performs over the next several months! As control, construct a prototype EMH-based portfolio. In late December 2014 we write up a report.

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.