Greenspan´s Fed vs Bernanke´s Fed – A picture post

Back at Scott Sumner´s blog, TravisV writes in the comments:

I’ve thought of a good blog post that might generate controversy and interest:

Talk about how the Fed led Greenspan was much much much much much better than the Fed led by Bernanke.

To which Scott answers:

It’s obvious that the Greenspan Fed was far better, but it’s not at all obvious that Greenspan himself was better than Bernanke–indeed I’d argue the opposite.

The Fed has a mandate: Low inflation and low unemployment. So that´s the criteria to use when comparing the Greenspan and Bernanke Fed. The charts provide the instrument for you (the reader) to judge.

G-B Fed_1

 

G-B Fed_2

And on the operation of the “control lever” (NGDP):

G-B Fed_3

But Scott also says he thinks Bernanke is better than Greenspan. That got me confused. Is he talking about the person, the economist or the Fed chairman? Maybe Bernanke is more pleasant and polite. Surely the academic standing of Bernanke is higher. But to the extent that the Fed Chairman is influential in getting FOMC policy made, as Fed Chairman Greenspan was much better than Bernanke. If they were awarded bonus by results, Bernanke would have gotten none!

Everyone knows the academic qualities of Bernanke. But even as an academic inferior, Greenspan developed a reputation not only as the world´s preeminent central banker, but also as the best economic forecaster. His knowledge of economic statistics and ability to dissect and connect official statistics, market/industry data, and so called anecdotal evidence was legendary. I would think those are the qualities/characteristics that make up a good central banker.

3 thoughts on “Greenspan´s Fed vs Bernanke´s Fed – A picture post

  1. Interesting commentary. I remember when people criticized Greenspan for being “too loose.’ Yet Greenspan was right.

    The guy somehow got it right; The threat today is not inflation, it is recession and maybe even deflation. Intuitively Greenspan shot for nominal GDP growth, just enough to keep the economy growing in acceptable real terms.

  2. Better to be lucky than right? I don’t know. Greenspan’s mea culpa after the financial crisis suggests he too bought into the “credit/financial crisis” narrative. Bernanke seems to actually understand it in theory.

    • Ravi, I was pretty dissapointed when I read Greenspan´s memoirs Age of Uncertainty, Starting with the title! At one point he said he had no idea why things went so well! Maybe because he was not ‘hooked’ in ‘deep theory’! I think his best moment was 1996-98 when he was alone in saying that productivity growth had increased and this was keeping inflation and unemployment low. Even Krugman, in 1997, was shouting that the Fed was behind the curve and inflation would soon emerge. That´s because growth was ‘too high’ and unemployment ‘too low’!

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