The inflation bogeyman

Calculated Risk (Bill McBride) presents this chart

Inflation Bogeyman

And remarks:

Using these measures, inflation has been moving up, and most of these measures are at or above the Fed’s target (Core PCE is still below).

OMG! None of them are above the Fed´s target because none of them are targets, other than the PCE (advised by the much less volatile PCE-Core), which is below target!

And aren´t we lucky that none of those other measures of inflation are the target. Quite likely the outcome of yesterday´s FOMC Meeting would have been very different (and much more painful too!).

PS In addition to those measures of inflation, the Cleveland Fed also provides (CPI) inflation expectations. The chart shows how the 5 and 10 yr expected inflation have behaved for the past two years, since the Fed began the rate rising mantra!

Inflation Bogeyman_1