“If I had a hammer” & “When will they ever learn”

From the FOMC Minutes

Most participants continued to expect that, with labor markets continuing to strengthen, the dollar no longer appreciating, and energy prices apparently having bottomed out, inflation would move up to the Committee’s 2 percent objective in the medium run.

Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.

Some participants were concerned that market participants may not have properly assessed the likelihood of an increase in the target range at the June meeting, and they emphasized the importance of communicating clearly over the intermeeting period how the Committee intends to respond to economic and financial developments.

They want markets to play Keynes´ “Beauty Contest Game”. However, market participants look at the same data that the Fed does. And markets don´t see objective reasons for the Fed to (explicitly) tighten.

The dollar, which reversed trend shortly after the April meeting, rose and will continue to rise to reflect the renewed passive tightening! When will they ever learn?

3 thoughts on ““If I had a hammer” & “When will they ever learn”

  1. Compounding their errors, why do they insist on Increasing IOR instead of starting to gradually reduce the balance sheet? Hypocritically, they refer to this as “normalizing” when a non-zero IOR is clearly abnormal. IOR was zero for the first 95 years of Fed history.

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