In The Fed’s Lift-Off: Keep Calm and Carry On, Alan Blinder, a former Board Member (1994-96) writes:
You’re in a pretty strange place when the phrase “lift-off” evokes images of the Federal Open Market Committee rather than of Cape Canaveral. But here we are, with all financial eyes fixed on the Fed and most market participants expecting the first increase in the federal-funds rate in more than nine years to come on Dec. 16.
Concluding
The point is that no one can predict interest rates years ahead because no one can predict the behavior of the economy years ahead. Future FOMC decisions are unpredictable, but not because they’ll be whimsical. On the contrary, policy makers will be reacting to developments in the economy in relatively systematic ways.
Despite all this uncertainty, my assessment is that the FOMC will time its “exit” approximately right. Not because they are a bunch of geniuses. Not even because they throw more staff resources at forecasting than anyone else. But simply because they get as many bites at the apple as they need. If they err, they can speed up or slow down. And they will.
The fact is that the Fed declared “mission accomplished” five years ago. That´s the point in time it put the economy on the track it wanted.
Does talking about “lift-off” mean it now wishes to move the track up!?
Keep wishing.
