Four years ago, she showed analytical promise. Now, she runs with the “wolf-pack”!

Diane Swonk in November 2011 [note: the original link has been taken down]:

A more likely scenario is that we see the Fed start to shape expectations via a more loose and conditional form of inflation and unemployment targeting. We saw a prelude to this when Chairman Bernanke laid out the Fed’s forecast, which shifted the outlook for unemployment to fall in any meaningful way out to 2014, from 2013.

The Fed also discussed nominal GDP targeting, which I prefer over Evans’s model. It just seems much more intuitive for markets to digest that the Fed is working to recoup losses endured during the recession, rather than raising the actual target on inflation

Diane Swonk today:

The strength of the dollar and increased competition from abroad are playing the largest role in holding down prices. Consumers have also become savvier in their spending habits, especially given the squeeze they are feeling from higher rents and health care costs.

The core CPI rose 1.9% from a year ago, which also marks a slight acceleration and will help the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, to tip the scales on liftoff in December.

If she still reasoned according to her target preference, she wouldn´t be so sanguine about the situation!

This is the behavior of NGDP growth since August 2014 (monthly to Sept/15 from Macroeconomic Advisers)



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