Which he usually is on his Fed Watch blog, trying hard to “outguess” Fed moves. I did a recent take on that in THE FED AND THE “ASYMPTOTIC APPROACH PRINCIPLE”.
In an article for Bloomberg Business today he´s a completely different and much more interesting analyst. Checkout his “The Fed Is on Thinner Ice Than It Realizes, and It May Be Setting Us Up for Recession”, where he concludes:
My concern now is that the FOMC is on thinner ice than members realize because they don’t believe they have already tightened policy. The soft landing may already be upon us. They just don’t know it, or won’t admit it.
That’s a recipe for recession.
Note: My interpretation of the “soft landing already upon us” is that the economy is already as depressed as the Fed wants. To want more would mean do a repeat of 1937!