Today Tim Duy was not boring!

Which he usually is on his Fed Watch blog, trying hard to “outguess” Fed moves. I did a recent take on that in THE FED AND THE “ASYMPTOTIC APPROACH PRINCIPLE”.

In an article for Bloomberg Business today he´s a completely different and much more interesting analyst. Checkout his “The Fed Is on Thinner Ice Than It Realizes, and It May Be Setting Us Up for Recession”, where he concludes:

My concern now is that the FOMC is on thinner ice than members realize because they don’t believe they have already tightened policy. The soft landing may already be upon us. They just don’t know it, or won’t admit it.

That’s a recipe for recession.

Note: My interpretation of the “soft landing already upon us” is that the economy is already as depressed as the Fed wants. To want more would mean do a repeat of 1937!

2 thoughts on “Today Tim Duy was not boring!

  1. “By George, I think he’s got it.”

    The difference between active tightening or loosening (aka fiddling with rates) and passive tightening or loosening (doing nothing while the economy, or rather economic expectations, wax and wane). It’s such an important lesson: monetary policy is always active as it is always relative to how the economy is nominally moving.

  2. Well, I think you’re a little unfair to poor Tim Duy, but at least he’s on board now. Like I always say, the Fed should print more money, pronto.

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