The “eager beavers” at the FOMC must be disappointed

I gather this is true from comments by Bill McBride (Calculated Risk). For the last several months, his conclusion was always that “…this was a “solid” report”. Today´s report was just “decent”!

In fact, given that this was the 6th year of recovery employment report, it was dismal! One pointer, if the participation rate had not dropped 0.2 points the unemployment rate, instead of falling to 5.3%, would have climbed to 5.7%.

No mystery that despite the “low” unemployment rate, wages stayed put, and remained at their 2% line year over year. Given that the “eager beavers” are watching wage growth with “hawk-eyes”, they must feel “depressed”!

In his preview of the Employment Report yesterday, Tim Duy concluded:

Bottom Line: Incoming data continues to support the case that the underlying pace of activity is holding, alleviating concerns that kept the Fed on the sidelines in the first half of this year. I anticipate the employment report, or, more accurately, the sum of the next three reports, to say the same. Accelerating wage growth could very well be the trigger for a September rate hike, while Greece could push any rate hike beyond 2015. I myself, however, tend to be optimistic the Greece situation will not spiral out of control.

Seems he´s optimistic about everything, forgetting someone took out the “firing pin”. Shortly he´ll be talking December 15…March 16…

It was mind-boggling to hear this conclusion in Ed Lazear´s (a former CEA president) interview about the jobs report:

Interviewer: The numbers we have do not correlate with the zero interest rate policy. If you were at the Fed…

Ed: The numbers don’t give reason to raise interest rates but there´s no reason to keep rates low because that´s not helping the economy very much.


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