That´s the takeaway from Matt Obrien´s “The recovery is stalling out again. Is the economy actually in … a recession?”
It’s only mostly crazy. And even then, it depends on what you mean by “recession.” If you’re talking about the usual rule-of-thumb of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, then, yes, there’s probably a 5 percent chance that we’ve fallen into one. But if you mean an economic decline that actually makes unemployment go up, then, no, we don’t have to worry about the r-word.
We just have to worry about a new normal of slow growth that might dip into negative territory every now and then even during the good times. In other words, about turning Japanese.
New normal indeed! SF Fed president John Williams, for one, is “happy”:
“I am very optimistic as to where the economy is going over the next couple of years,” Mr. Williams said. “We’ve gotten the national economy back to basically full strength,” he said, adding what is now a 5.5% jobless rate will likely move to 5% by year’s end.
How fast we have adapted!