Bill McBride at Calculated Risk calls it “another strong report”. Among other things, he says:
Gives out a good headline, but covers up the essentials! He shows a version of this chart:
Note that the fall in year over year employment in 2008-09 was higher by a factor of almost 3 to the fall experienced in the previous worse post-war recession in 1981-82! Despite that, the employment gains at present are relatively mediocre! Given the depth of the drop, the gains should have been much larger!
But many will say: “We´re in a “Great Stagnation”, or “It´s the “New Normal” or even, “it´s the Demographics”!
I say “It´s the wrong monetary policy, stupid”!
Let´s see why.
The first chart shows the economy´s “main driver”, aggregate nominal spending or NGDP, closely controlled by the Fed.
As for the rest,
Be it a measure of employment
Measures of unemployment
Or inflation indicators
And if the Fed insists on going on a “raiding party” (i.e. begin “policy normalization”) we will soon be looking back to 2014 as “Great Times”!