The charts illustrate the “story”.
There are some points of interest:
- Since formally becoming an IT central bank, the “target” has never been attained!
- For most of this time, oil prices were stable, so the fall in all measures of inflation was not the result of falling oil prices!
- The more recent crash in oil prices will “temporarily” reduce inflation even more. When that effect disappears, inflation will go up but still remain far short of target!
Bottom Line: It´s very unlikely that the Fed will begin the “policy normalization” process this year!