There´s absolutely nothing new on the economic front! So why there´s so much talk about “policy normalization” (i.e. increase in rates)?
Since the economy “pulled-up” from the “gutters” of the “Great Recession” a “mediocre moderation” has established itself. It´s growth all right, which is more than the EZ, for example, can flaunt. But in this case, doing better than the Jones´ is not the appropriate yardstick! It only self-serves the US policymakers.
Maybe the persistent drop in the unemployment rate over this period is “side-tracking” monetary policy makers. Inflation below target is “good” and if unemployment is reaching “full employment” the time is nearing for “us” to act!
Earlier this year, before the quarter1 GDP release, the NGDP Indicator was pointing to growth remaining close to 4%. At the time so was Justin Irving´s real time NGDP forecast, but now it´s down a notch!