I am going to try to make the case that, all else being equal, monetary policy should be less accommodative–by which I mean that it should be willing to tolerate a larger forecast shortfall of the path of the unemployment rate from its full-employment level–when estimates of risk premiums in the bond market are abnormally low. These risk premiums include the term premium on Treasury securities, as well as the expected returns to investors from bearing the credit risk on, for example, corporate bonds and asset-backed securities. As an illustration, consider the period in the spring of 2013 when the 10-year Treasury yield was in the neighborhood of 1.60 percent and estimates of the term premium were around negative 80 basis points. Applied to this period, my approach would suggest a lesser willingness to use large-scale asset purchases to push yields down even further, as compared with a scenario in which term premiums were not so low.
I believe the Federal Reserve should block full employment any time interest rates on bonds are abnormally low.
I believe the Federal Reserve should keep people out of work any time interest rates on bonds are abnormally low.
I believe the Federal Reserve should slow the economy’s growth any time interest rates on bonds are abnormally low.
I believe that when money is tight, we should make it tighter.