House Prices, NGDP & Trend and Current Account: A pictorial fable

Outside the US, three countries are famous for their house price boom, to wit: Australia, Ireland and Spain.

My pictures show that one of these “dogs” didn´t bark. Make up your stories about the “silent dog” and the “howling dogs”. Write your “short story” up in the comment section.

Fable_1

Fable_2

Fable_3

Hint: US house prices began to rise following the Asia crisis in 1997-98. Asia had to divert resources to the tradable sector (to decrease its CA deficit). The US was the natural “counterparty”, diverting resources from the tradable to the nontradable (housing) sector.

And don´t forget to look at (and take into account) the behavior of our “beloved” NGDP!

Update: Scott Sumner reminds us that “Balance of Payment Issues are not Macro Issues

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