One more member in the NGDP (level) Targeting group

This from John Quiggin:

in the post-crisis environment, achievement of inflation targets has no longer promoted stable economic growth. Rather, low  inflation has been a drag on growth. But with inflation clearly under control, central bankers like former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet have been able to describe their own performance as ‘impeccable’, even as the economies and currencies they manage appear headed for collapse.

This system is clearly unsustainable. But what is the alternative? The most popular idea begins with a change of target, from the rate of inflation, to the level of nominal GDP (the most commonly used measure of national output, valued at current prices).

The idea would be to combine a target rate of inflation (say 2-3 per cent) with an estimate of the medium-term rate of real economic growth required to maintain full employment (again 2-3 per cent is a plausible estimate). The aim would then be to keep the value of GDP, expressed in current dollars, on a growth path consistent with these targets (that is, at an average annual rate somewhere between 4 and 6 per cent).

This change would have several effects. First, it would restore the balance that used to prevail in monetary policy before the 1990s, when central banks were explicitly required to pursue full employment as well as price stability.

Second, because the target would apply to the level of nominal GDP, its adoption would require central banks to catch up the ground lost over the last few years of depressed growth and generally low inflation. That would permit a temporary increase in inflation, which is necessary if growth is to be restarted against a crushing burden of debt.

Third, the adoption of a nominal GDP target, by committing central banks to an expansionary policy would have self-fulfilling effects on expectations. By contrast, the effectiveness of past measures to expand credit has been undermined by the expectation (justified by events) that they would be wound back as soon as the immediate crisis was over.

Last but not least, a nominal GDP target would create room for fiscal policy as well as monetary policy. What is needed now is the abandonment of counterproductive austerity policies as a response to the slump in Europe and the US. Austerity should be replaced by a combination of short-term fiscal stimulus and long-run measures aimed at a sustainable budget balance. That can only be achieved if central banks co-operate with pro-growth fiscal policy, instead of seeking to counteract it in the name of inflation targets.

The abandonment of inflation targeting would, of course, be an admission of failure. But central banks have failed, disastrously, and admitting this would be the first step towards a sustainable recovery.

A system of nominal GDP targeting would maintain or enhance the transparency associated with a system based on stated targets, while restoring the balance missing from a monetary policy based solely on the goal of price stability.

Only quibble: he could have disregarded any need for “fiscal stimulus”.

3 thoughts on “One more member in the NGDP (level) Targeting group

  1. Good find! Wow, and his arguments for NGDPLPT are good.

    (He’s not quite so good on *marketing* the idea to central banks though. See my second comment on his post:

    John: “The abandonment of inflation targeting would, of course, be an admission of failure. But central banks have failed, disastrously, and admitting this would be the first step towards a sustainable recovery.”

    You’ve never worked in marketing, have you?

    Try this instead:

    ‘ The switch to NGDPLP targeting would not be an abandonment of inflation targeting. NGDPLPT would be a refinement of what was always seen as the goal underlying flexible inflation targeting, by making that goal more transparent, and providing a firmer nominal anchor for long term expectations through a commitment to correcting the occasional past mistake. It is not an admission of failure, but a recognition that further improvements are desirable.’

    I always wondered why more lefties weren’t pushing for NGDPLPT. This is restoring my faith that the world makes sense.

  2. Pingback: TheMoneyIllusion » About the GDP numbers

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