Tim Duy has a nice discussion here. He puts the Eurozone entanglement squarely inside the projections for the US economy. More than that he mentions the incredibly low expectations that people are using as yardstick to measure the economic performance of the US economy. This is something I´ve dealt with regularly: the confusion between growth and activity level, with many just focusing on the former and forgetting the depth of the “hole” the economy is in.
An excerpt :
Because of the uncertainties surrounding the European crisis and whether or not it induces a regime change in the US economy, forecasters lack conviction about the recession calls, with most circling around 50-50. At the same time, however, I don’t see that the competing forecast could in anyway be called optimistic. Optimistic relative to recession, but the baseline forecast remains that of an economy still struggling along in the 2-3% range – a range no one thinks is acceptable given the current high levels of unemployment.