O ponto de vista alemão II

Kantoos Economics (aqui) redefine seus cálculos anteriores para concluir que o “sucesso” da economia alemã se deve ao fato de a política monetária do BCE ter sido exatamente aquela que manteve o crescimento da demanda agregada na “tendência”, só que agora, depois dos “sacrifícios”, existe o desejo de se estabelecer uma tendência de crescimento mais elevada!

Update (27/1): Ryan Avent elabora sobre esses pontos (aqui):

So to sum up, food and energy issues aside, euro zone inflation overall is unlikely to get out of hand thanks to falling price pressures around the periphery. But in Germany, faster growth is finally turning into some inflation. So what the ECB should do, both in order to facilitate recovery across the entire euro zone and to speed internal euro-zone rebalancing, is let German inflation run a bit. But all indications are that the ECB sets policy based on conditions in Germany. And so premature and costly tightening looks likely.

It’s very unfortunate. The only thing worse than a suboptimal currency area is a suboptimal central bank to go with it.

Update 2 (27/1): Kantoos manda outro post (aqui) com discussão adicional sobre a questão Alemanha versus “Periferia”:

First of all, I completely agree that looser monetary policy in the Eurozone is necessary. Not only because it facilitates the adjustment in the periphery as Ryan Avent has correctly argued. More importantly, as I have repeatedly written (in German, though) aggregate demand is almost 10% below trend – and falling. So despite my recent claim that ECB policy seems to be right for Germany, it is a disaster for the Eurozone as a whole.

Por fim, Merle Hazard, que está ganhando muito dinheiro (mais talvez do que na sua função de assessor de investimentos)com composições “celebrando” a crise em diversos países, faz a sua Ode  (aqui)

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