Em “Falsas Esperanças” (aqui), mostrei as diferenças no comportamento econômico entre países que mativeram o câmbio fixo (atrelado ao euro) daqueles que possuem câmbio flutuante. Há pouco, Krugman reprisou o tema (aqui):
The Baltics have done much worse than Iceland. And the employment numbers are just part of it. Iceland, as even the IMF says, has been able to “preserve the Nordic social model”; there has been a lot of distress, but not much extreme hardship. Meanwhile, the impact on Baltic society has been devastating.
Now it’s true that the Baltic countries have been able to maintain their fixed exchange rates. And this is crucial because ….?
Anyway, the idea that a country suffering a 25 percent fall in GDP, a 20 percent fall in employment, and mass emigration can be hailed as a policy triumph boggles the mind.