“O homem que sabia demais”…

Mas que não soube aproveitar do seu conhecimento! Assim, não resisti à ironia dessa passagem no ensaio do Zingales lincado no post anterior:

In a 1999 article with fellow economist Mark Gertler, Bernanke analyzed the impact of monetary policy when prices move away from fundamentals. That this contingency was the object of their analysis illustrates how the EMH was losing ground. Their conclusion, however, was that the Fed should not intervene, not only because it is difficult to identify the bubbles but also because “our reading of history is that asset price crashes have done sustained damage to the economy only in cases when monetary policy remained unresponsive or actively reinforced deflationary pressures.”

Veja na figura que o crash da bolsa (-22% em um único dia) em outubro de 1987, os problemas no setor financeiro (S&Ls e bancos) no final dos anos 1980 e início dos anos 1990 ou o estouro da bolha da Nasdaq em 2000, nada disso “detonou” a economia. Desse modo, de acordo com o próprio Bernanke, em 2008 a política monetária ativamente reforçou as pressões deflacionárias, a melhor  explicação para a derrocada da demanda agregada!

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