Sem saber se “comunicar”

Existem coisas difíceis de explicar. Greenspan era críptico, no entanto, o time de Fed watchers que brotou durante sua gestão foi capaz de interpretar bastante bem seus “murmúrios”. Bernanke, por outro lado, muito antes de se tornar chairman do Fed sempre foi o “paladino” da transparência e da “clareza” da comunicação. Resultado: um desastre! Acho que a “obsessão” com juros (tido como o principal, senão único, mecanismo transmissor da PM) explica uma boa parte do problema.

Nick Rowe tem um excelente post sobre o tema (aqui):

The Fed is trying to communicate two things. First, it is trying to communicate that it will buy long term bonds and this policy will be effective by pushing down yields on long term bonds, which should increase consumption and investment demand. Second, it is trying to communicate that this policy will be effective in increasing future inflation and real growth, both of which will push up yields on long term bonds. The Fed’s “communications strategy” is self-contradictory. No single individual can believe both parts of that communications strategy at once.

Expectations are more important than anything else in determining interest rates, output, and inflation. Those stupid bits of paper we call “money” would be worth nothing if people didn’t expect them to be worth something. The whole purpose of central banks’ having a communications strategy is to manage those expectations. You can’t manage expectations with a self-contradictory message.

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