“Anche tu” Meirelles

Depois de Mantega ficar “ensadecido” há duas semanas, volta à carga com “A guerra mundial das moedas” repercutido no Financial Times (aqui):

An “international currency war” has broken out, according to Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, as governments around the globe compete to lower their exchange rates to boost competitiveness…

Mas não é só o Brasil com Mantega e agora com Meirelles para quem:

“Não se pode permitir que as moedas de alguns países se enfraqueçam”, e que, “o problema cambial é muito sério e precisa ser enfrentado”

A Ásia também entrou no jogo (aqui).

Pode ser que de forma até inconsciente, todos estão procurando dar “estimulos monetários”. Reproduzindo link anterior de Eichengreen escrevendo em março de 2009 (aqui), destaco o “prato principal”:

In the end competitive devaluation benefited no one, it is said, since all countries can’t devalue their exchange rates against each another. The only effects were to fan political tensions, heighten exchange rate uncertainty, and upend the global trading system. Financial protectionism if you will…

In fact, this popular account is a misreading of both the 1930s and the current situation. In the 1930s, it is true, with one country after another depreciating its currency, no one ended up gaining competitiveness relative to anyone else. And no country succeeded in exporting its way out of the depression, since there was no one to sell additional exports to. But this was not what mattered. What mattered was that one country after another moved to loosen monetary policy because it no longer had to worry about defending the exchange rate. And this monetary stimulus, felt worldwide, was probably the single most important factor initiating and sustaining economic recovery.

Em sua opinião na discussão patrocinada pela Economist postada ontem, Scott Sumner argumenta na mesma linha (aqui)

Mas a retórica de Mantega e Meirelles não “casa” com os fatos. Como ilustrado nas figuras, a intensidade das valorizações de todas as moedas (exceto o dólar canadense) nos últimos 4 meses foi maior do que a do real!

E “coitado do Japão”. Não consegue depreciar o iene nem mesmo quando o resto do mundo deprecia, como ocorreu na segunda metade de 2008! Não admira que esteja “atolado” há vinte anos!

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