Monthly Archives: July 2012

It´s not quite gone, but the just released NGDP growth data clearly indicates that monetary policy has, if anything, been tightening. The chart shows that NGDP growth at annual rates has been trending down for a year, and this does … Continue reading →

That´s Kathleen Madigan in her WSJ column today. First she “blows”: Wheat is not oil. The drought in parts of the U.S. farm region has caused prices for commodities including corn, wheat and soybeans to jump this summer. But the … Continue reading →

The Fed is blocking progress, but wants us to believe it´s ready to “push the buttons”: Federal Reserve officials, impatient with the economy’s sluggish growth and high unemployment, are moving closer to taking new steps to spur activity and hiring. … Continue reading →

In his latest post Tim Duy ends thus: Ultimately, I think the Federal Reserve made a huge policy error in committing to an explicit 2% inflation target.  I think policymakers were under the impression that such a commitment would give them more … Continue reading →

Recently, Scott Sumner had this to say: Consider the following three dramatic declines in NGDP growth:  1929-30, 1981-82, and 2008-09. Now think about what the sticky wage model would predict in each case.  I’d say a sharp fall in RGDP. … Continue reading →

The WSJ asks if inflation could revive the economy. Chinn & Frieden answer in the affirmative, ‘selling’ it as: “something completely different – an approach to restoring vigorous economic growth that challenges the received wisdom of our era”. The illustrative chart … Continue reading →

It´s not what you think. Back in 2005 Gregor Smith found an eerie resemblance between Japan´s Phillips Curve (inflation and minus the unemployment rate). Seven  years on, if anything, the resemblance has increased! Update: Given Chile´s very distinct geographical shape, I … Continue reading →

Jesse Livermore puts up this chart in his twitter: Trying to lead us to believe that the rise in the debt ratio (mostly reflected in the rise of mortgage debt) is a consequence of wage stagnation since the early 1970s. … Continue reading →

Scott Sumner now has a monthly post – The Dual Mandate Watch – to “keep track”. Commenter Ben J wrote: Scott, you should think about creating a visual aid that can illustrate how far away we are from achieving the … Continue reading →

In 30 troubling years Krugman has this to say: Second, a dramatic rise in household debt, which many of us now believe lies at the heart of our continuing depression. Here’s household debt as a percentage of GDP: Scott Sumner … Continue reading →