Strange as it may seem, what we would like to observe at this point is a RISE in the unemployment rate for a time. The reason for that strange conclusion is that if the economy really picks up, more people will be drawn into the labor force so that for a short period of time unemployment will likely increase.
What we observe at present is a “inching down” of unemployment along with an “inching down” of the labor force, the labor force participation rate, the employment growth rate and the employment-population ratio, all bad omens!
The charts illustrate.
Excellent blogging. Like all sensible teachers, we now give a “B” when the student has earned a “C-”.